for nine months in a row. russia's military death toll in ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark. we have more from a bbc investigation coming up. and heavy rain batters the united arab emirates causing flash flooding. some places recording a year's worth of rain in a single day. uk inflation is down to its lowest level in 2.5 years. figures released show the rate of inflation has fallen to 3.2% in the year to march. it's down from 3.4% in the month before, thanks to a drop in price for some food items like crumpets, meat and chocolate biscuits. let's speak to steve nolan, lecturer in economics at liverpooljohn moores university. thank you for coming on the programme. we thank you for coming on the programme-— thank you for coming on the i programme._ what thank you for coming on the - programme._ what you thank you for coming on the _ programme._ what you make programme. no problem. what you make ofthe programme. no problem. what you make

of the numbers? — programme. no problem. what you make of the numbers? generally _ of the numbers? generally as exnected. a _ of the numbers? generally as expected, a little _ of the numbers? generally as expected, a little bit - of the numbers? generally as expected, a little bit higher i of the numbers? generally as i expected, a little bit higher than projected but overall the downward trend is as expected and as you said, food is driving a lot of the fall which is generally good news for people, it makes up a big proportion of budgets, especially, and we have had i watering high—rises over the last couple of years, as you got was 90%, now it is 4%. some things are actually falling. you mention meat, chocolate biscuits and crumpets. if you are not concerned about a healthy diet, really good news. just not concerned about a healthy diet, really good news.— really good news. just reminders in simle really good news. just reminders in simple terms _ really good news. just reminders in simple terms what _ really good news. just reminders in simple terms what is _ really good news. just reminders in simple terms what is inflation? - simple terms what is inflation? inflation is basically a measure of prices. a representative basket of goods that people buy and then year—on—year we tracked how those prices are doing. at the moment, it is positive which means prices are still rising that the rate at which they are rising is falling, it was

ii%, they are rising is falling, it was ii%, now 3.2%. i they are rising is falling, it was me, now 3.2%._ they are rising is falling, it was 1196, now 3.2%. they are rising is falling, it was 1196, now 3.296. ~ ., ., , , ., 1196, now 3.296. i know economists and ro'ections 1196, now 3.296. i know economists and prejeetions but — 1196, now 3.296. i know economists and projections but let's _ 1196, now 3.296. i know economists and projections but let's look— 1196, now 3.296. i know economists and projections but let's look ahead - projections but let's look ahead over the summer, what are you expecting? over the summer, what are you meeting?— over the summer, what are you exectina? , , . expecting? everyone is expecting another big _ expecting? everyone is expecting another big fall _ expecting? everyone is expecting another big fall next _ expecting? everyone is expecting another big fall next month - expecting? everyone is expecting another big fall next month when j expecting? everyone is expecting i another big fall next month when we see the quarterly price cut estimated to go down by i2%. that is going to see a drop in the year—on—year prices. we will actually see inflation near or maybe even below the bank of england target of 2%. even below the bank of england target of 296-— even below the bank of england taruet of 296. �* ., ., ., , target of 296. below, 0k, how does that feed into _ target of 296. below, 0k, how does that feed into interest _ target of 296. below, 0k, how does that feed into interest rates? - target of 296. below, 0k, how does that feed into interest rates? this i that feed into interest rates? this is the thing. _ that feed into interest rates? ti 3 is the thing, obviously the bank of england is projected and expected to cut interest rates at some point but for some uncertainty about when that will be, some of the figures released yesterday about the labour market may be give the bank of england reason to pause. we saw on

positive news for people that wages are high, but they might be slightly concerned that if wages remain high thatis concerned that if wages remain high that is going to feed into the cost of services which might actually keep inflation may be a little bit stickier for longer. keep inflation may be a little bit stickierfor longer. i keep inflation may be a little bit stickier for longer. i think overall, the market is expecting a cut in june. overall, the market is expecting a cut injune. irate overall, the market is expecting a cut in june-— overall, the market is expecting a cut in june. ~ ~ , . , ., cut in june. we will keep an eye on that. cut in june. we will keep an eye on that- thank — cut in june. we will keep an eye on that. thank you _ cut in june. we will keep an eye on that. thank you very _ cut in june. we will keep an eye on that. thank you very much. - that. thank you very much. impeccable balance behind you. karl marx over one shoulder, capitalism over the other. perfectly balanced economists. the post office inquiry continues today, with a former investigatior and former chairman set to give evidence. yesterday, the inquiry heard there were problems with the horizon it system as it was being introduced in 1999. 0ur correspondent azadeh moshiri is at the inquiry and joins me now. what are we expecting today? investigators were a big focus of

this scandal and the testimony given thus far to the inquiry because their conduct has been such a big part of this. todayjohn london will be giving evidence, the investigator in 2010, you will remember she is the former sub—postmistress in surrey who was wrongfully convicted of stealing £70,000 and sent to prison while she was pregnant with her second child. she has told the bbc that pregnancy is what stopped her from taking bbc that pregnancy is what stopped herfrom taking her own bbc that pregnancy is what stopped her from taking her own life. bbc that pregnancy is what stopped herfrom taking her own life. she gave birth wearing an electronic tag and the post office has previously shown in documents and reports that her case was seen almost like an existential threat to the success of horizon, it was her case that would prove post office at horizon it worked and a legal expert said that at the time. a common refrain from

victims has been investigators told them they were the only one experiencing these problems with the it system. they had complaints about their conduct in language that was used, accusations of intimidation. a lot of that is likely to come up. we will also hear from a former chairman of royal mail in 22,002 who was therefore the early parts of the scandal and the inquiry will want to know what he knew about the horizon it system, and how much of a priority it was to the royal mail. remind us broad terms about what happened, the one of the biggest injustices in the uk. you happened, the one of the biggest injustices in the uk.— happened, the one of the biggest injustices in the uk. in'ustices in the uk. you are right, it injustices in the uk. you are right, it is considered _ injustices in the uk. you are right, it is considered by _ injustices in the uk. you are right, it is considered by legal— injustices in the uk. you are right, it is considered by legal and - it is considered by legal and expects, mps have said it is the widest miscarriage ofjustice in uk history because more than 900

sub—postmasters were wrongfully prosecuted. 0ver sub—postmasters were wrongfully prosecuted. over a faulty it system creating shortfalls in their account. they were accused of theft, false accounting, when there was no actual evidence of this and we are constantly told that the system could not fail, it was successful and operation beyond any reasonable doubts of people lost homes, they were bankrupt, we talked about the mental health problems, several suicides have been linked to this and that impact was notjust on those who were wrongfully convicted, it was also their families who were shunned by neighbours, some said their children were bullied in schools. this woman, her husband was beaten up, that is what he told the bbc previously after she ended up on the front page of a local newspaper branded a thief. the consequences of this scandal that has lasted more

than 20 years cannot be overstated. thank you. let's turn now to the war in ukraine. for more than two years, bbc news russian service and its partners mediazona have been gathering and verifying the identities of more than 50,000 russian fighters killed in ukraine. that figure is eight times more than the losses russia has acknowledged. the data collected by the bbc reveals that more russian fighters died in the second year of the war than the first — a reflection of how russian tactics have changed over time and confirmation that the human cost of the war has only risen. lead investigator 0lga ivshina has more. in russia, the number of war graves is growing fast. 5th of november. man speaks russian. "9th of november. "

listing the dates of death, volunteers have sent us this video from the city. and here is the same cemetery from above. in the last two years, it has grown twice in size, a pattern seen in graveyards all over russia. since the start of the invasion, the bbc and its partners have been verifying photos of graves, social media posts and news articles to track down the number of russians killed fighting in ukraine. so far, we have verified 50,000 names. our data shows that russia has lost 23% more troops in the second year of the invasion compared to the first. this reflects the shift in tactics. at first, russia was relying on its professional soldiers deployed to carry out complex operations, but since january 2023, russia started sending thousands of inexperienced troops towards soldiers themselves, called "the meat grinder." the russians are now able to bring a lot more firepower to bear against ukrainian positions when they go into the offensive. as long as the ukrainians are unable to shift that balance of firepower

then the meat grinder tactics will very likely continue to be quite successful in taking limited areas of ground across the front. prisoners recruited and sent to war have been crucial to these tactics. in return for six months on the front line, they were promised freedom, if they survived. to understand the average military life span of a prison record, we have tracked down more than 1,000 inmates, from the day they signed up to the day they died. our data reveals that more than half of prisoners in our sample have died within just 12 weeks of arriving at the front line. and the prisoners would be sent first on to the ukrainian positions and that would force ukrainians to reveal themselves and engage them possibly with artillery. the real units would then be able to conduct their own offensives against already pre weakened ukrainian positions. against already pre—weakened ukrainian positions. whilst our count only includes deaths recorded publicly,

data from cemeteries across russia suggests the true figure is likely to be twice as high. asked for comment, the russian government did not respond. and as russian forces continue to push on, pictures of new graves keep coming every day. with me in the studio is the lead investigator of this report, 0lga ivshina. the numbers are really stark and that difference you drew remains as between the two years and the reasons behind that. first of all these are open source numbers which we managed to get with our partners, an independent russian news site called mediazona. this is a bare minimum, the real number is definitely higher but we only rely on these because this provides is not only clear figures but also as you rightly said clear tendencies. the most important thing is russia

has lost more people in the second 12 months of fighting men during the first month of the invasion and this reflects the change of tactics. how much of this will be known by people across russia? it much of this will be known by people across russia?— across russia? it will be interesting, _ across russia? it will be interesting, people - across russia? it will be interesting, people are l across russia? it will be - interesting, people are more across russia? it will be _ interesting, people are more aware of the deaths around them, a little bit about deaths in the region but there is no unified figure so people do not really know how many people are killed in the neighbouring regions and it seems it might have been the strategy from the very beginning so you don't have a feeling of the scale, the total scale. i5 feeling of the scale, the total scale. , ., , u, ., feeling of the scale, the total scale. , ., , ., ., ., scale. is there any indication of a chance scale. is there any indication of a change of — scale. is there any indication of a change of tactics _ scale. is there any indication of a change of tactics that _ scale. is there any indication of a change of tactics that that - scale. is there any indication of a change of tactics that that is - change of tactics that that is changing at all if we look at how much longer this could be going on, are we expecting the same kind of rate? that are we expecting the same kind of rate? �* ., , , , rate? at the moment it seems they are pursuing _ rate? at the moment it seems they are pursuing this— rate? at the moment it seems they are pursuing this strategy, - rate? at the moment it seems they are pursuing this strategy, sending | are pursuing this strategy, sending

prisoners and the troops to advance positions to save the most professional, a few remaining. i ask experts the same question, they see russia has a huge reserve of people, males of fighting age so they can afford to keep doing this for quite afford to keep doing this for quite a while. ., , ., afford to keep doing this for quite a while. . , ., ., ., ., , a while. that is an extraordinary chillin: a while. that is an extraordinary chilling statement _ a while. that is an extraordinary chilling statement given - a while. that is an extraordinary chilling statement given the - chilling statement given the numbers, you mentioned you expect the real numbers to be even higher. this is very difficult to know. what are you basing that on? information from cemetery _ are you basing that on? information from cemetery locations _ are you basing that on? information from cemetery locations along - are you basing that on? information | from cemetery locations along russia thanks to people who send pictures of the cemeteries. copies of local newspapers which only exist in the newspapers. we see those greys and the local cemeteries but on top of that, each time we get information from the cemeteries we see from 30

to 70% more, definitely people in military uniforms, that death has never been reported publicly. we guess that the two number figures might be twice as high and this does not include people who were fighting in formations of the separatist republics. controlled by russia. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

heavy rain has battered the gulf states, causing flash flooding, with some places recording a year's worth of rain in a single day. dubai airport was forced to divert incoming flights for around two hours, but operations have since restarted. these pictures in dubai show cars washed away in the streets, as a fierce storm causes destruction across the gulf region. authorities in neighbouring 0man

said 18 people had been killed by the extreme weather. 0ur reporter aruna iyengar has more. dubai international — the world's busiest airport, but a wash—out yesterday with flights diverted. below the world's tallest building, the burj khalifa, roads submerged around the city's financial centre and shopping malls. navigating the roads in this residential area was proving tricky. but these men were viewing it as an interesting challenge. parts of dubai saw more than a year's worth of rain in a day. the gulf states are usually known for hot, dry weather, but heavy rains are coming round more often. in 0man, police airlifted people caught up in flash floods.

across the country, 18 people died, among them, schoolchildren swept away in a bus. bahrain was also hard hit by lightning strikes and flooding. across the united arab emirates, schools were shut, people were advised to work from home. the region is bracing itself for more bad weather, further storms are expected today. further storms are expected on wednesday. aruna iyengar, bbc news. since the pandemic, inactivity among uk people of working age due to long—term sickness has soared, pushing up the benefits bill and holding back the wider economy. new official figures this week showed another rise. that has all prompted a major "back to work" push from the government. but new research from the health foundation seen by bbc newsnight suggests the inactivity crisis is set to get considerably worse over the coming years, not better. newsnight�*s ben chu reports.

my health caught up with me. it was that and it was nothing else. and it was the worst thing in the world for me to stop working. i hated it. i still hate it. it's mainly my autism and my anxiety that comes around with the autism as well. they're the main reason that i qualify for the benefits that i do. two faces of economic inactivity in 2024, but will there be many more in the decades to come? since the covid pandemic began in early 2020, inactivity among working age people — that's those aged between 16 and 64 — has risen by around 770,000. and the biggest driver of that rise in inactivity has rise in inactivity has by far been

the rise in long—term sickness. that has been a brake on the economy and prompted the creation of a major back to work programme from government ministers. but if ministers were hoping for a rapid turnaround, here's a reality check. the health foundation thinktank projects that the number of working age adults suffering from major illness — whether diabetes, depression, chronic pain or heart problems — is actually set to rise significantly over the coming decades, in fact, by an extra 700,000 by 2040. fran springfield, a nurse for decades, was forced to give up work while she was in her fifties due to back problems which left her needing to use a wheelchair. the sadness of it all has been is that there's no real way that i could go back and work part time. i only know of one of us in the uk who is a wheelchair user and still works. and troublingly, new research from the foundation seen by newsnight suggests 80% of that 700,000 projected increase in working age people suffering from major illnesses is expected to be among the least well—off half of the english

population, shown on the left. a lot of the people who live in more deprived areas, actually, _ as we saw in the pandemic, - many of them are the key workers. many of them are the people that are absolutely vital _ to keeping our economy going. so we can't kind of discount a whole segment of the workforce simply i because they're poor. ijust enjoyed it since for as long as i can remember, i always know when my mental health is going downhill when i stop doing my art. charlotte bien, a 26—year—old single mother, is economically inactive because of her mental health problems, including anxiety and borderline personality disorder. i think if someone's struggling financially and i know this is an extreme example, but if someone's struggling to feed themselves and their child at the same time, then that's going to cause you a massive amount of depression and anxiety. i need i need more mental health support. so what sort of mental health support are you getting at the moment, then? i have appointments

with a mental health nurse. but i've only had one so far. i've not not had any other support for a long time. so that's one in the last year or whatever, what period? it will be the past couple of years. in an ideal world, i'd be able to see somebody potentially once a week. the policy challenge when it comes to inactivity is twofold — to stop people getting into it, but also to help people out of it. ben chu, bbc news. more on that story for our uk viewers on newsnight tonight. a memorial ceremony will be held this afternoon for pc yvonne fletcher, marking a0 years since she was shot and killed outside the libyan embassy in london in 1984. a campaign is also being launched to bring a private prosecution over her death. 0ur legal correspondent dominic casciani reports. gunfire.

early morning, the 17th of april 1984. shots ring out across the london sky and a police officer falls. the shooters, revolutionary followers of libya's colonel gaddafi, who control the country's embassy in london. the victim, a dedicated community officer who'd been sent to keep the peace during a demonstration. wpc yvonne fletcher was 25 years old. her death shocked the nation. but nobody was ever charged with her murder. after a ten—day siege, the then—prime minister margaret thatcher had no choice under the laws protecting diplomats. everyone inside was able to leave and return to libya. the police neverforgot, including john murray, who held wpc fletcher's hand as she lay dying. she lived for the job she did. everybody loved her. being here today, it brings it all back anyway. i mean, i can remember every single thing that happened that day. it's sad, but, you know, we'll never forget yvonne. we can't forget yvonne.

in 2017, crown prosecutors dropped a case against saleh ibrahim mabrouk — the only surviving senior figure from the day — because secret evidence couldn't be used in a trial. so mr murray sought damages instead. mr mabrouk wrote to the court from libya saying he'd done nothing wrong. but a high courtjudge ruled he wasjointly liable for the shooting carried out by others. mr murray is using that finding to launch a rare private criminal prosecution. my charges against him will be conspiracy to murder yvonne fletcher. that information would be laid at the magistrates' court, and then i, with the legal process, go to the crown court and have a hearing. prosecutors have the power to stop mr murray's case, but he says he has a lifelong promise to keep. that promise has kept me going. i can never forget. you know, those were the last words yvonne fletcher heard. and i've got to follow that promise through and get herjustice.

dominic casciani, bbc news. with 100 days to go until the opening ceremony of the paris olympics, the city is gearing up to welcome hundreds of thousands of fans. with preparations well under way, our sports editor dan roanreports from the french capital. a sneak preview of how paris 2024 will look this summer. we were granted access to one of the most spectacular sports venues being built for the games. preparation's gathering pace with just 100 days to go. this will be the playing surface for the beach volleyball competition. this 13,000 seater arena — a temporary venue — is rapidly taking shape and, as you can see, the setting couldn't be any more iconic. with millions of tickets already sold, 250,000 more go on sale today. the man in charge telling me plans for paris are on track. it's the biggest event that france has ever organised. the venues are ready, the budget is balanced. we know that in this kind of event, anything can happen in the last

stretch, but i'm very satisfied with where we stand at this moment. but at a time of geopolitical tensions, and in a country that's suffered from terrorism, there are mounting safety concerns, especially over the unprecedented opening ceremony, with athletes set to sail along a stretch of the seine on barges. security is the top priority. from day one, we put in place an unprecedented system. can you guarantee that an event that's open on the river is safe? yes. there is this expertise coming from the public authorities. i trust when they say we know how to deliver an opening ceremony on the river seine. despite such assurances, this week, french president emmanuel macron admitted the opening ceremony may have to move from the river if the security risk is deemed too high. 0rganisers say the games will help to regenerate the suburb of saint—denis — home to the main stadium and athletes' village, and one of the poorest and most diverse parts of the country.

but some who live here have doubts about its legacy. it would be very complicated to travel. maybe for two months, there will be some jobs, but it won't last. will it change the everyday life of the inhabitants? i don't think so. despite concerns over swimming events in the seine due to pollution levels, organisers are promising a sustainable games, with 95% of the infrastructure existing or temporary. paris starting to feel like an olympic city, as the final countdown begins. now it's time for a look at the weather with matt taylor. the post office inquiry continues today, with a former investigatior and former chairman set to give evidence. he was involved in the wrongful

conviction of a woman who was jailed in 2010. we had double problems with the it horizon system yesterday as it was introduced in 1999. david miller admitted there were ongoing concerns about transactions not being recorded properly. he said he regretted not doing more to address the issues. between 1999 and 2015 the issues. between 1999 and 2015 the post office prosecuted 700 people due to the faulty horizon it system. some were convicted and sent to prison while many others were left financially ruined and lost theirjobs, businesses and jobs. let's cross live to the inquiry. welcome, take us through the background to what we will hear about today. background to what we will hear about today-— background to what we will hear about toda . ., ,., . ~ ,., about today. one of the back part of the scandal — about today. one of the back part of the scandal has _ about today. one of the back part of the scandal has been _ about today. one of the back part of the scandal has been the _ about today. one of the back part of the scandal has been the conduct i about today. one of the back part of the scandal has been the conduct of| the scandal has been the conduct of investigators. we have heard

concerns from victims in the way they were treated, the language used by investigators as well as the common refrain that they were constantly told they were the only ones who are having problems with the horizon it system. today, we will hear from john longman who was the investigator inseam ezra, wrongfully convicted in 2010 of stealing £70,000, sent to prison when she was pregnant and she said that pregnancy is what stopped her from taking her own life. she eventually gave birth wearing an electronic tag. her case is particularly important here because in documents and testimony it became clear the post office was particularly concerned with the horizon it system being proven to be robust in court during seema misra's case and it was seen as a priority

to the post office. we are also going to behaving from a former senior executive who was chairman of the royal mail group beginning to thousand two before he climbed the ranks and stayed at the top of the board. he was there when the royal mail group and post office were part of the same organisation. he led the group alongside adam crozier for much of the time which was the early part of the scandal, when hundreds of prosecutions against sub—postmasters took place. the key question will be what he knew about the prosecutions, problems with the it system, be horizon it system and how a big priority it was to the board. i5 how a big priority it was to the board. , , . ., , board. is the inquiry continues remind us _ board. is the inquiry continues remind us where _ board. is the inquiry continues remind us where we _ board. is the inquiry continues remind us where we are i board. is the inquiry continues remind us where we are to. i

board. is the inquiry continues i remind us where we are to. this is -hase remind us where we are to. this is phase five. — remind us where we are to. this is phase five. the — remind us where we are to. this is phase five, the statutory - remind us where we are to. this is phase five, the statutory inquiry i phase five, the statutory inquiry has a lot of powers. it can compel witness testimony, it can compel evidence which is why so many witness victims have been coming to these hearings, because they want to be a few look at these people in the face and hear their answers, be a few look at these people in the face and heartheiranswers, in be a few look at these people in the face and hear their answers, in fact seema misra is here today tojohn longman's testimony, even if he is going to be appearing remotely. that is about as far as the inquiry can go. the goal is to understand what people knew and when they knew it. and how this could possibly have happened. victims here are impatient forjustice but given this has gone on 20 years, more than two decades, what they want is accountability. the inquiry is about to start. you might be able to hear the fire alarm

but i want to play for you now fight forjustice. let's listen. seema misra there and we are expecting her to be at the inquiry there. there is a fire alarm just taken place we can't go back for just a moment let's now from mister miller mr miller told the inquiry he had not read a damaging expert mister miller damaging expert report about the horizon system. that led a lawyer representing former sub—postmasters to question mr miller's honesty during his testimony. mr. marsh comes to you with a report that he's knocking, that you're hearing something going on in the background

about from the post office, knocking this report and you decide not